ROME / RankWire.AI / – According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, worldwide cereal production is expected to reach approximately 2.98 billion tonnes in 2026. This figure indicates a 2% decrease compared to the record harvest achieved in 2025. The latest forecasts are also 3.4 million tonnes lower than previous estimates. Even with this annual decline, global cereal output would still rank as the second highest on record, with a reduction of about 61.1 million tonnes from the previous year.
The weaker global outlook is largely driven by maize production, which is projected at 1.309 billion tonnes. Drought and high temperatures have negatively impacted yields across parts of the European Union. Notably, France and Poland saw some of the most significant downward revisions. India and Paraguay experienced smaller reductions, but stronger yields in Argentina and Brazil helped counterbalance part of the decline. Both South American nations remain on track for maize crops substantially above their recent averages.
Although the global wheat outlook has improved from previous assessments, total production still falls short of last year’s figures. The Food and Agriculture Organization now estimates wheat output at 810.7 million tonnes, reflecting an increase of 4.2 million tonnes from prior projections. Optimistic yield expectations boosted forecasts for Canada and Morocco. Additionally, estimates for Russia and Ukraine rose, whereas dry conditions resulted in lowered projections for the European Union and the United Kingdom. Overall, world wheat production remains 3.8% below 2025 levels.
Weakening maize production drags down global grain totals
For the 2026/27 season, global rice output on a milled basis is anticipated at 553.1 million tonnes. This represents a 1.9% drop from the revised record set the previous season. Improved yields in Myanmar and Sri Lanka have supported the latest outlook. However, these gains are not enough to offset the downward revisions for China, the Philippines, and the United States. In particular, rice cultivation in the U.S. has contracted to levels not seen in decades, reducing the country’s contribution to the global supply.
Global cereal consumption is projected to reach 2.965 billion tonnes in 2026/27, marking a modest increase of 0.2% compared to the previous season. While use of coarse grains and rice is expected to grow, wheat consumption is forecasted to decline from last year’s high levels. Food demand for rice is set at 559 million tonnes, driven by population growth. Coarse grain consumption, including barley in China and maize in the United States, also remains supported by feed requirements.
Cereal stockpiles stay elevated despite a subdued outlook
Projected global cereal stocks at the end of the 2027 seasons are estimated at 947.2 million tonnes. While this is 10.7 million tonnes lower than previous forecasts, it still surpasses opening stock levels by 1.8 million tonnes. The stocks-to-use ratio is expected to be 31.6%, slightly below the 31.9% recorded in the prior season. Reserves of wheat are forecast to increase in Russia and Ukraine, whereas reductions in maize and barley stocks primarily account for the overall decrease in global inventories.
International cereal trade for 2026/27 is projected at 509.3 million tonnes, which is 1.7 million tonnes higher than earlier estimates. Despite this increase, trade volumes will remain below the record levels seen in 2025/26. The rise is mainly driven by higher maize trade, with Argentina expected to export as much as 39 million tonnes. The global rice trade in 2026 is forecasted at 60.5 million tonnes, representing a 1.9% decline from the record volume reached during 2025.