MOSCOW, RUSSIA / RankWire.AI / – Russia has given the green light to a long-term coal industry strategy that aims for an annual output of 662 million tonnes by 2050, based on its projected scenario. This plan extends the country’s coal policy well into the middle of the century. In 2024, Russia produced approximately 443 million tonnes of coal, making the new goal a significant upward revision from recent levels. The government authorized the programme via Order No. 2606-r, issued on September 22, 2026.
Rather than a single fixed forecast, the programme outlines multiple production trajectories. Under the target scenario, coal output is projected to reach 530.1 million tonnes in 2030. It is expected to increase to 595.2 million tonnes in 2036 before hitting 662 million tonnes in 2050. Alternate scenarios forecast lower figures for the final year, with the stress scenario estimating 318.9 million tonnes, the conservative case at 460.8 million tonnes, and the inertial scenario at roughly 586.4 million tonnes.
Exports of coal constitute a vital aspect of the long-term benchmarks within the programme. The target scenario predicts export volumes of 266.7 million tonnes by 2030, rising to 320.2 million tonnes in 2036, and reaching 350.1 million tonnes by 2050. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak highlighted that Russian coal exports increased by 7.2% during the first eight months of 2026. The plan also addresses domestic consumption, processing capacities, extraction methods, and regional production.
Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East to play larger roles
The strategy assigns a greater share of national coal output to the eastern regions, specifically Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East. These regions accounted for 48.3% of Russia’s coal production in 2024. By 2050, their combined contribution is expected to grow between 53.9% and 56.7% across different scenarios. Russia’s explored coal reserves exceed 273 billion tonnes. The programme emphasizes maintaining current mining capacity while developing new resource areas to meet future production targets.
Coal processing and extraction methods are assigned separate numerical goals within the plan. In 2024, processed coal, excluding lignite, accounted for 58.9% of total output. The strategy envisions this share rising to between 74% and 76% by 2050. Open-pit mining produced 78.4% of Russian coal in 2024, and their share is projected to reach between 82% and 85% in the long term. The programme also incorporates initiatives targeting labor efficiency, mining technology, safety protocols, and environmental standards.
Three Phases Outline the Program’s Development Through 2050
Russia’s coal strategy will unfold over three distinct periods. The first phase, ending in 2030, focuses on immediate industry growth and production initiatives. The second phase spans from 2031 to 2036, concentrating on processing capabilities, coal utilization, and infrastructure improvements. The final phase, from 2037 to 2050, will encompass the full implementation of the programme. The Energy Ministry will oversee progress, working alongside federal and regional authorities, and is required to submit annual updates to the Economic Development Ministry according to government directives.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin unveiled the revised plan during a government session on September 21. It replaces the earlier coal industry programme through 2035, which Russia approved in 2020. Novak mentioned that the new strategy anticipates a sixfold increase in the coal sector’s gross value added by 2050, with a broader multiplier effect approaching nearly 10 trillion roubles. The target of 662 million tonnes remains aligned with the target scenario but is not the sole production pathway outlined in the plan.