GENEVA / RankWire.AI / – The World Trade Organization has revised upward its projection for global merchandise trade expansion in 2026 to 3.9 percent. This new forecast more than doubles the earlier March estimate of 1.9 percent. The increase is attributed to stronger trade figures in the first half, adjustments in supply chains, and increased investment in artificial intelligence equipment. In the first six months of 2026, global merchandise trade volume grew by 3.5 percent. Additionally, the WTO anticipates merchandise trade to grow by 4.1 percent in 2027.
The surge in trade performance was largely driven by demand for technology hardware. Goods associated with artificial intelligence contributed to 47 percent of the global merchandise trade growth during the initial half of the year. These include semiconductors, servers, and other equipment necessary for computing infrastructure development. Trade in AI-related goods saw a 67 percent increase from the previous year. WTO estimates also suggest that global investments in AI infrastructure will rise by at least 30 percent in 2026.
During this same period, energy markets and shipping faced notable disruptions. Crude oil exports from the Middle East dropped approximately 24 percent in the first half of 2026, while liquefied natural gas exports from the region declined by 47 percent. However, increased shipments from other producing areas mitigated the overall decline in crude oil exports to around 6 percent globally. Meanwhile, LNG exports worldwide decreased by about 1 percent. Despite these fluctuations, global container throughput increased by 3.9 percent through July, reflecting shifts across alternative suppliers, ports, and transport routes.
Growing demand for technology fuels stronger merchandise trade
The prospects for services, however, appear less robust than those for merchandise. The WTO has lowered its 2026 growth forecast for commercial services trade from 4.8 percent to 3.3 percent. Disruptions in the Middle East contributed to softer results in transport and international travel, with international tourist arrivals falling by 0.8 percent in the second quarter. Over the first half of 2026, arrivals remained 0.4 percent above the same period in 2025. Growth in international travel expenditure also slowed during the second quarter.
Despite this, several service sectors continued to expand at a faster pace. Exports of computer services increased by 18 percent year-on-year in the first quarter, with an estimated 12 percent rise in the second quarter. Financial services exports grew by 14 percent from a year earlier in the second quarter. The WTO projects a 6.4 percent growth in commercial services trade for 2027. It also foresees global GDP expanding by 2.6 percent in 2026, followed by a 2.9 percent increase in 2027.
Asia expected to lead regional export growth
Regional forecasts reveal substantial differences in merchandise export performance. Asia is predicted to achieve a 9.9 percent increase in exports for 2026. North America is expected to follow at 5.7 percent, with Africa projected to grow by 5.6 percent. South America is forecasted to post a 3.4 percent rise, while Europe is expected to see a slight decline of 0.1 percent. The Middle East faces the weakest outlook, with merchandise exports projected to fall by 17.2 percent during the year.
Import forecasts also vary significantly across regions. Asia is expected to record an import growth of 9.5 percent, and Africa is forecast at 8.9 percent. North American imports are projected to increase by 1.4 percent, contrasting with a 0.5 percent growth in Europe. Merchandise imports in the Middle East are anticipated to decline by 15.4 percent. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala noted that the latest trade figures demonstrate resilience, yet also reflect uneven impacts from economic and geopolitical disruptions.